Dear Colleagues! This is Asrar Qureshi’s Blog Post #1085 for Pharma Veterans. Pharma Veterans Blogs are published by Asrar Qureshi on its dedicated site https://pharmaveterans.com. Please email to pharmaveterans2017@gmail.com for publishing your contributions here.
Preamble
While population growth is alarming for the countries and the world at large, this is one side of the picture. An even more alarming situation is the falling birth rate which has gone down drastically low.
I am discussing this matter through drawing material from a recent McKinsey report along with articles from various other sources. Links at the end.
Reasons for Declining Birth Rate
Falling birth rates across the world are driven by a combination of social, economic, technological, and cultural factors. Here are the key reasons globally. Pakistan has a different situation due to major disparity between income groups.
Economic Factors
- Rising Cost of Living – Housing, education, healthcare, and childcare costs have surged, making raising children financially challenging. In Pakistan, basic facilities are not provided by the state. Therefore, everyone has to pay for education and health by themselves. Both are extremely expensive. Housing is also a major expense which becomes much more expensive when utilities are included in it.
- Job Insecurity & Economic Pressures – Unstable job markets, inflation, and wage stagnation discourage couples from having larger families. Unemployment is high already, and job security is not there. The job may be lost any time due to whims of the employers.
- Higher Female Workforce Participation – More women are prioritizing careers, delaying childbirth, or opting for fewer children. An increased number of women are coming into work force here due to economic reasons, and also because girls are studying higher and better.
Social & Cultural Changes
- Delayed Marriages & Parenthood – People are marrying later or choosing to remain single, leading to shorter reproductive windows. We have additional issues about finding suitable matches and coping with dowry demands.
- Changing Family Values – Traditional family structures are evolving, with more people choosing child-free lifestyles. Joint family systems are breaking, and people are preferring to live alone with their immediate families.
- Urbanization & Smaller Living Spaces – Urban living often discourages larger families due to space constraints and higher costs. This is another reason for breakup of joint family system because space does not allow more people.
Education & Awareness
- Higher Education Levels – More educated individuals, especially women, tend to have fewer children due to career aspirations and lifestyle choices.
- Awareness of Reproductive Health – Better knowledge of contraception and family planning enables people to have children by choice, not by chance.
Medical & Technological Advancements
- Increased Access to Contraception – Widespread availability of birth control methods allows for planned pregnancies.
- Improved Infant Survival Rates – Historically, high birth rates were necessary due to child mortality. Today, lower mortality means fewer births are needed.
- Fertility Issues & Delayed Childbearing – Fertility declines with age, and more couples struggle with conception due to lifestyle factors and medical conditions.
Government Policies & Social Support Gaps
- Lack of Family-Friendly Policies – Countries without strong parental leave, childcare support, or financial incentives see declining birth rates.
- Strict Work Environments – Long working hours and demanding careers make balancing work and family life difficult.
Changing Gender Roles & Relationships
- Shift in Gender Expectations – Women are no longer expected to prioritize motherhood, leading to more personal choice in family planning.
- Declining Marriage Rates – With more people delaying or avoiding marriage, fewer children are being born, particularly in the developed societies.
Social & Psychological Factors
- Mental Health & Stress – Modern lifestyles contribute to stress, anxiety, and reluctance to take on parenting responsibilities.
- Happiness & Personal Fulfillment – Many individuals prioritize travel, hobbies, and experiences over traditional family life.
The decline in birth rates is a complex issue driven by economic realities, shifting social norms, medical advancements, and personal choices. While some governments are introducing policies to encourage higher birth rates, long-term solutions will require addressing financial pressures, work-life balance, and societal expectations.
Pakistan situation is an anomaly. People at the lowest social strata are having the most children while educated, financially stable couples opt to have fewer children.
Shape of Working-age Population to Come
Working-age people account for the bulk of economic output. Therefore, their numbers relative to those of older and younger people impact various economic outcomes.
All regions shall see the share of working-age people in their population decline, although at different paces and points in time. First wave regions are those already undergoing this change. Later wave regions, where the shift is just beginning to take hold or hasn’t yet arrived, will experience a peak and subsequent decline in the share of working-age population in the future—in some cases, the near future.
Among first wave regions are predominantly developed economies—Advanced Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, North America, and Western Europe—and Greater China, which has lower GDP per capita than other first wave regions but shares their demographic characteristics. These regions have an average total fertility rate of 1.2 children per woman today, and 67 percent of their combined population is working age, down from a high of 70 percent in 2010. In aggregate, this cohort is rapidly shrinking in these regions, where the share of the working-age population is projected to drop to about 59 percent by 2050.
There are two later wave groups of regions. A second wave has just reached Emerging Asia, India, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East and North Africa. Their total fertility rate is 2.2, and 67 percent of their population is working age today. This wave is still gathering momentum, however, and will peak in the 2030s in aggregate.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the average fertility rate is 4.4 today, and just 56 percent of the population is working age. This share will continue to grow, peaking at 66 percent well into the second half of the century, when the third wave of the demographic shift hits them.
Support Ratios Will Continue to Fall
The world shall become more and more youth-scarce, which means that the number of workers per senior will fall.
We shall discuss this and the implications of youth scarcity in the next blog.
To be Concluded…
Disclaimers: Pictures in these blogs are taken from free resources at Pexels, Pixabay, Unsplash, and Google. Credit is given where available. If a copyright claim is lodged, we shall remove the picture with appropriate regrets.
For most blogs, I research from several sources which are open to public. Their links are mentioned under references. There is no intent to infringe upon anyone’s copyrights. If, however, it happens unintentionally, I offer my sincere regrets.
Reference:
https://nypost.com/2024/08/31/opinion/the-world-is-running-out-of-children